The title has been revealed for Star Wars Episode VIII. I check in on my prediction for the title…
So the title for Episode VIII was revealed as “The Last Jedi”.
To assess my predictive ability, I include the surprisal () and the Shannon entropy (). I am aiming to both have low surprisal (i.e., low ) but also to be well calibrated, so that .
|Item||P(Contains)||P(Does not contain)||E[I]||I|
|Knights of Ren||0.1||0.9||0.469||0.152|
|Name of a character||0.05||0.95||0.286||0.074|
As it turns out, I ended up with , which suggests (if anything) that I was not sufficiently bold in my predictions (i.e., I should have had somewhat lower predictions across the board).
These calculations are all assuming that these are independent predictions, which they are not really (I wouldn’t expect a title to have both Jedi and Sith, for example), but they are at least somewhat informative.
In terms of my specific prediction, I gave a 30% chance to the title containing Jedi, which was the 3rd highest chance I gave, behind “Rescue” and “Dark/Darkness/Dark side” (both on 40%), so I don’t think that’s too bad!