Predictions for 2017 update – French Socialist Party presidential primary


I made a particularly bad prediction a few weeks ago in only giving “Other” candidates a 2% chance (in total) of winning the French Socialist Party presidential primary. It turned out in the end that not only did Benoit Hamon make it through to the second round ahead of Arnaud Montebourg, he then won the second round.

That measly 2% corresponds to a surprisal of 5.64 bits. My predicted Shannon entropy for this contest was 1.12 bits. What this tells us is that I underestimated the uncertainty in this contest quite considerably.

We shall wait to see how well my predictions hold up when the full Presidential contest is held.