Predictions for 2017 update – Copeland by-election

A little update on my political predictions for 2017 following the Stoke and Copeland by-election results. I only made a prediction for Copeland, and gave a 70% chance of Labour losing it, which they dutifully did.

This carries a surprisal of 0.515, versus expected surprisal (Shannon entropy) of 0.881. Good going!