Predictions for 2017: Politics – Update!

A quick post to update on my politics predictions for 2017.

French Presidential election

The two candidates in the runoff were Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen and Macron comfortably won in the second round. My predictions (made before the Fillon scandal concerning payments to his family members from the public purse for no work) gave this a first round result probability of 3% and a second round probability of 7%. The surprisal for the first round is 5.1 bits (expected surprisal 1.1 bits), so not a very good prediction. Second round surprisal of 3.8 bits versus expected 1.4 bits is not quite so bad, but still not great.

Go France for confounding my expectations!

UK politics

So Theresa May called an early general election (a possibility I had not considered when making my predictions), and then partially lost it (a possibility I doubt I would have considered). Some of the probabilities I put together are obviously affected by this, but less than they would have been by an increased Conservative majority. Jeremy Hunt survives another reshuffle as Health Secretary, Boris Johnson remains Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Corbyn remains Labour party leader, now in a much stronger position than previously.