| Lions @ Jets | Dolphins @ Bills | Patriots @ Raiders | Titans @ Chargers | Probability Jets make playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | BUF | LV | TEN | 62% |
| NYJ | MIA | LV | TEN | 56% |
| NYJ | BUF | NE | TEN | 49% |
| NYJ | BUF | LV | LAC | 45% |
| NYJ | MIA | NE | TEN | 42% |
| NYJ | BUF | NE | LAC | 36% |
| NYJ | MIA | LV | LAC | 36% |
| NYJ | MIA | NE | LAC | 29% |
| DET | BUF | LV | TEN | 28% |
| DET | BUF | NE | TEN | 23% |
| DET | MIA | LV | TEN | 23% |
| DET | BUF | LV | LAC | 19% |
| DET | BUF | NE | LAC | 14% |
| DET | MIA | NE | TEN | 14% |
| DET | MIA | LV | LAC | 12% |
| DET | MIA | NE | LAC | 8% |
The New York Jets come into week 15 of the 2022 season after a 20-12 loss at Buffalo, which combined with other results in week 14 pushed the Jets out of the number 7 seed to number 9. The Jets stand at 7-6 with four games to go and a 33% chance of making the playoffs according to FiveThirtyEight.
ESPN’s Football Power Index puts the probability at 25%, but since the FiveThirtyEight website gives us the chance to see what happens to playoff odds when games go a certain way, that is the one we will be using.
Whichever of the Bengals and Ravens doesn’t top the AFC North is basically guaranteed one of the wild card slots. The Jet’s main rivals for the two remaining AFC wild card slots are the Dolphins (8-5), Chargers (7-6) and Patriots (also 7-6). The Jets need to leapfrog at least two of these teams, who they currently sit behind in the standings.
The Chargers have a cupcake schedule for their final three games, with this week’s contest hosting the Tennessee Titans by far the toughest remaining.
The Patriots beat the Jets twice this season so will finish ahead of the Jets if they close the season with the same overall record, but their remaining schedule includes the Bengals, Dolphins and Bills.
So what happens to the playoff odds for the Jets depending on the outcomes of the four week 15 games involving the Jets, Dolphins, Patriots and Chargers?
First things first: the Jets need to take care of business against the Lions. If the Jets lose to the Lions and other results don’t go their way their playoff hopes will fade significantly. If the Jets win they can just about tread water even if the other results don’t go their way, or even get up to the number 6 seed.
The next thing that Jets fans need to root for is a win for the Titans over the Chargers – this can make a significant impact on the Jets’ chances.
The remaining two games are about as important as each other. Ideally the Raiders and Bills would win both. The Jets’ playoff chances can swing by as much as 20% (from 42% to 62%) depending on the outcomes of these two games.
FiveThirtyEight and ESPN have the game odds as follows:
- Bills over Dolphins (538: 77%, ESPN: 77%)
- Jets over Lions (538: 53%, ESPN: 54%)
- Raiders over Patriots (538: 51%, ESPN: 62%)
- Chargers over Titans (538: 53%, ESPN: 63%)
The Bills and Dolphins play on Saturday night football, while the Jets/Lions matchup is the only one of the four games at 1pm Eastern on Sunday. The Patriots and Chargers are both in the mid-afternoon, but with the Chargers match starting 20 minutes later than the Patriots there’s a good chance you can follow both pretty well.