Star Wars Episode VIII title revealed…

The title has been revealed for Star Wars Episode VIII. I check in on my prediction for the title…

So the title for Episode VIII was revealed as “The Last Jedi”.

To assess my predictive ability, I include the surprisal (I=-\log_2 p) and the Shannon entropy (H=E[I]). I am aiming to both have low surprisal (i.e., low I) but also to be well calibrated, so that \sum{E[I]} \approx \sum{I}.

Total 7.79 5.10
Item P(Contains) P(Does not contain) E[I] I
Force 0.2 0.8 0.722 0.322
Dark/Darkness/Dark side 0.4 0.6 0.971 0.737
First Order 0.2 0.8 0.722 0.322
Resistance 0.2 0.8 0.722 0.322
Knights of Ren 0.1 0.9 0.469 0.152
Republic 0.05 0.95 0.286 0.074
Empire 0.05 0.95 0.286 0.074
Rebellion/Rebel Alliance 0.05 0.95 0.286 0.074
Jedi 0.3 0.7 0.881 1.737
Sith 0.1 0.9 0.469 0.152
Rescue 0.4 0.6 0.971 0.737
Battle/War 0.2 0.8 0.722 0.322
Name of a character 0.05 0.95 0.286 0.074

As it turns out, I ended up with I<H, which suggests (if anything) that I was not sufficiently bold in my predictions (i.e., I should have had somewhat lower predictions across the board).

These calculations are all assuming that these are independent predictions, which they are not really (I wouldn’t expect a title to have both Jedi and Sith, for example), but they are at least somewhat informative.

In terms of my specific prediction, I gave a 30% chance to the title containing Jedi, which was the 3rd highest chance I gave, behind “Rescue” and “Dark/Darkness/Dark side” (both on 40%), so I don’t think that’s too bad!

 

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